GreyMamba

Thinking Allowed … (under construction)

Thinking Allowed … (under construction)

Maths and Statistics

A section to showcase various aspects of mathematics and statistics. OK, OK, I know statistics is a branch of mathematics but I like to differentiate them - probably because I often can't get my head around 'stats'! Any anyway, as Nassim Nicholas Taleb onec said: "Our risk machinery is designed to run away from tigers; it is not designed for the information-laden modern world."
Interesting stuff on Maths and Statistics

Linear Differential Equations

Although I ought to know this kind of stuff off the top of my head, I don't. In fact, I seem to forget how to do things immediately after I've done them… What were we talking about? Oh yes, Linear Differential Equations (LDE). Much of engineering and a lot of the 'harder' sciences are about describing the physical world and then using the descriptions to predict something else. Many problems need to describe systems that vary, in a predictable way.

Way back in the 17th century Newton and Leibnitz developed a concise mathematical way of dealing with these situations which has become modern day Calculus. Setting up a mathematical description often results in equations that contain some elements of this sytem and are referred to as differential equations. Certain forms of these are the eponymous LDEs.

So, this is just a simple reminder of what LDEs are, and one way to solve them.

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Euler

Arguably the best equation in mathematics - well from an engineer's point of view anyway

$$e^{i\theta}=cos{\theta} + i sin{\theta} $$

Apparently this all comes from rotating a unit line in the complex plane - you can Google it if you want to know. There is a special case of this where if you make \(\theta\) equal to \(\pi\) and noting that \(sin \pi = 1\) and \(cos \pi = -1\) it is easy to get Euler's identity:

$$ e^{i\pi} +1 = 0 $$

This is a fascinating equation because it brings together 5 of the most fundamental numbers in maths: \(0, 1, i, e\) and \(\pi\)

Anyway, this post looks at the Euler equation(s) and uses them to do stuff.

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Statistics can be dangerous

Modern society relies on accurate statistics to help it function. However, we, as simple herd-based animals, just aren't equipped to accurately interpret the raw figures. Even simple things like being nervous of flying but happily travel at insane speeds in our cars, feeling comfortably cosseted and safe but in much more danger than hurtling through the air 7 miles above the surface of the Earth. For the nervous flyers here - you're more likely to die in the 3 mile taxi ride to the airport than on the 6000 mile flight to Hong Kong.

But such fears are sort of understandable and just need relatively simple statistics to be rationally understood. This entry is about a more sophisticated misunderstanding - the so called 'base rate fallacy'. Just how certain should we be of our modern systems? Is DNA evidence really totally infallible?
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Bayes

It's probably true today that after Bayes, given it's highly probable, then it's likely that something might not be at all usual. Or, to put it another way - Bayes' Rules

Back in the 18th century, Thomas Bayes started to look at the probability of something happening given some prior condition. His laws, rules or theorems have become really useful and important in the modern world. Issues like working out things how like a DNA match is to indicate guilt, how likely you really are to have a disease if you test positive in a test that is very accurate (but not perfect). If you've heard of the concepts of 'false positives' and 'false negatives' then Bayes will be your friend - I'm 97% positive about that!
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More counterintuitive stats

Goats and expensive cars! A real-life instance where indecision is actually the best strategy. Here I'm looking over the Famous Monty Hall game show where the intrepid voyager stands to win an American car or a goat. Personally I think, unless the car was a '68 L88 Corvette, I'd go with the goat!
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It's always wet in Manchester

More fun with Bayes. And introducing Manchester, UK. One of the great undiscovered places to visit in England. Come on over and have a ball.

But the weather can be pretty dire - I wonder if that's where the slang term 'manky' comes from? Here we look at the probabilities surrounding how likely it is to be raining - given some unreliable evidence!
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Somewhat 'moody' winter 'photo, Looking South across the River Mersey from the Hale lighthouse near Liverpool airport.

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