It's probably true today that after Bayes, given it's highly probable, then it's likely that something might not be at all usual. Or, to put it another way - Bayes' Rules

Back in the 18th century, Thomas Bayes started to look at the probability of something happening given some prior condition. His laws, rules or theorems have become really useful and important in the modern world. Issues like working out things how like a DNA match is to indicate guilt, how likely you really are to have a disease if you test positive in a test that is very accurate (but not perfect). If you've heard of the concepts of 'false positives' and 'false negatives' then Bayes will be your friend - I'm 97% positive about that!

Goats and expensive cars! A real-life instance where indecision is actually the best strategy. Here I'm looking over the Famous Monty Hall game show where the intrepid voyager stands to win an American car or a goat. Personally I think, unless the car was a '68 L88 Corvette, I'd go with the goat!

More fun with Bayes. And introducing Manchester, UK. One of the great undiscovered places to visit in England. Come on over and have a ball.

But the weather can be pretty dire - I wonder if that's where the slang term 'manky' comes from? Here we look at the probabilities surrounding how likely it is to be raining - given some unreliable evidence!